Sean Payton's legacy will forever be attached to the successful onside kick he called for at the start of the second half of Super Bowl XLIV, leading to the New Orleans Saints' iconic championship. All of that could've been tainted, though, if Payton's intrusive thoughts weren't vetoed by his own players during last season's AFC Divisional game against the Buffalo Bills.
According to expanded reporting on his postseason leadership, Payton admitted after the Denver Broncos' 33-30 overtime victory he originally called for a fake punt on fourth-and-11 from his own 38-yard line during the extra period. His special teams unit declined to run it and the ensuing Bills possession resulted in a Josh Allen interception that set up Denver's game-winning field goal. If his fake was executed unsuccessfully, Buffalo would've likely kicked its way to the AFC Championship Game.
That's quite an instance of the butterfly effect in football terms. What appeared to be a mini-mutiny by his players forcing a concessionary play eventually set up the team for a turnover and game-winning field goal. Anything else and it could've been disaster for Denver — and Payton.
Sean Payton's risky business could eventually be his and Denver's downfall
It's fair to say the only reason Denver didn't play in Super Bowl LX was because starting quarterback Bo Nix missed the AFC title game with a broken ankle suffered in the final moments of the previous week's win. Though, had Nix been healthy, there's no way to know if he or other Broncos players would've declined another risky play call by Payton in a crucial moment.
The fake-punt-that-wasn't should be a lesson to Payton that sometimes the ordinary can result in the extraordinary if you trust your team's ability to execute. He didn't need to get cute to find a way to win against Buffalo, he just needed to trust his guys would capitalize on an inevitable mistake made by the opponent.
Examined in ESPN's reporting on Payton's mindset, the 62-year-old apparently studied hours and hours of fake punt film until he settled on a play run by the Las Vegas Raiders. He adapted it to Denver's personnel and apparently was dead set on running it at some point when the moment called for it.
"[It was] worth the risk," Payton said in interviews. "We had the right look."
We probably will never know what his players saw that he couldn't, but Payton judged that moment wrong and was saved from what could've been one of the biggest mistakes of his career.
There's no way to guarantee it won't happen again and ultimately that'll come down to whether Payton continues to incorporate riskier and riskier approaches to his play-calling going forward. Nobody's asking him to abandon his principles, those are what got him this far. But being just a tad bit more cautious and trusting of the elite talent he's leading could go a long way, especially with a championship window now unexpectedly wide open.
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